Scenarios for Russia/Ukraine End Game

Dean Gee
4 min readJun 1, 2022

Do you have others?

Photo by Nico Smit on Unsplash

Ukraine wins the war

This is what most of the world hopes for, particularly western powers. I don’t for one moment believe that Ukraine will defeat Russia, but perhaps Putin’s taste for war bitters, the more it costs him to keep the war going. The western countries continue to fund the Ukraine and support Ukraine, with modern technological weapons and such support of Ukraine might lead to Putin not wanting to continue the war. (The west have a strategy of fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian standing.)

Perhaps The Russian people will be more and more isolated and sanctions will bite, but I don’t think this scenario will be the outcome because Putin has China as a neighbour and China makes around 70% of consumable goods. Putin has already done a deal with China for energy, in exchange for consumer goods, no doubt.

Nuclear strike from Russia

This is possibly one of the worst outcomes. Maybe Putin will lose his mind if the Ukrainian forces defend valiantly as they currently are. Putin will therefore have to make life unbearable in Ukraine with rockets strikes, cyber strikes and cutting off energy supplies to destroy Ukraine as we know it. Nuclear strikes are extremely risky, as it may lead to counter nuclear strikes from the west. But with that MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) mentality that someone like Putin may hold, this could be a possibility.

If the west does not react, then Putin will annex Ukraine and make it a state of Russia once more, and Putin will outlaw anything that goes against his regime, making Russia a police state. He could also close the iron curtain once more.

Partition in Ukraine

Perhaps by agreement, parts of Ukraine can remain independent. Putin will insist that the Eastern parts belong to Russia. Russia may insist on other regions too and use it as a bargaining tool with Zelensky, offering peace after months of war on the condition that parts of Ukraine fall under Russian rule and become Russian. (This was Putin’s initial motivation for war along with the advance of NATO Eastwards, according to him). Putin has said that he was fighting against the murder of Russians in the Donbas region.

Dean Gee

Corporate Director, writing about health, weird phenomena, leadership, good ideas, in Data Driven Investor,Illumination.